Global urban patterns: urbanisation, megacities and distribution

Urbanisation is the increase in the proportion of people living in urban areas. In 1950, 30 % of the world's population was urban; by 2024 it is over 56 %; the UN projects 68 % by 2050. Urbanisation is a global megatrend, but its pace and pattern differ sharply between regions.

Where is urbanisation happening fastest?

• HICs (Europe, North America, Japan) — already heavily urbanised (~80 %); growth slow or static; some "shrinking cities" in declining post-industrial regions (parts of Detroit, Liverpool).
• LICs (sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South Asia) — currently ~40 % urban but the rate of urbanisation is highest. Urban populations doubling every 15–20 years (Lagos, Kinshasa, Dhaka).
• NEEs (Newly Emerging Economies — China, India, Brazil, Mexico) — rapid urbanisation accompanied by massive economic growth. China's urban share rose from 19 % (1980) to 65 % (2024).

Push and pull factors

People move to cities for two big reasons:

Push factors (away from rural areas)

• Rural poverty and shrinking smallholder incomes.
• Mechanisation reducing farm jobs.
• Drought, soil degradation, climate change.
• Lack of services (schools, healthcare, electricity).
• Conflict and persecution.

Pull factors (towards cities)

• Better-paid jobs (manufacturing, construction, services).
• Education and healthcare access.
• Lights, modernity, cultural opportunity.
• Family already there → chain migration.

Megacities

A megacity is an urban area with 10 million or more people. There were 2 megacities in 1950 (New York and Tokyo); over 35 in 2024; projected ~50 by 2035.

Distribution by 2024 includes:

• Asia (the megacity superpower) — Tokyo (37 m), Delhi (33 m), Shanghai (29 m), Dhaka (23 m), Mumbai, Beijing, Karachi, Manila, Osaka.
• Latin America — São Paulo (22 m), Mexico City (22 m), Buenos Aires, Rio, Lima, Bogotá.
• Africa — Cairo (22 m), Lagos (22 m, growing fastest), Kinshasa.
• North America — New York (19 m), Los Angeles (12 m).
• Europe — Moscow, Istanbul (which straddles two continents); Paris and London close to the megacity threshold.

Megacities can be sub-classified

• Slow-growing megacities — mature HIC cities (Tokyo, New York).
• Rapid-growth megacities — NEEs (Delhi, Mumbai, São Paulo).
• Hyper-growth megacities — LICs / NEEs with explosive informal growth (Lagos, Dhaka, Kinshasa).

The geography of urban distribution

Most megacities cluster:

• In NEEs and LICs — these regions are currently urbanising.
• On coasts and rivers — historic transport access (Shanghai, Mumbai, Lagos, New York).
• In capital cities — political and economic centralisation (Tokyo, Cairo, Delhi).

Africa has the fastest urban growth but currently the fewest megacities — that is changing rapidly.

Why urbanisation matters

• Economic — cities concentrate economic activity (~80 % of GDP comes from cities globally). Productivity is higher; innovation thrives.
• Social — cities are engines of social mobility but also of inequality.
• Environmental — cities cover ~3 % of land but emit >70 % of global CO₂.
• Political — urbanisation drives demographic transition and shifts political power away from rural areas.

The challenges

Rapid urbanisation outstrips planning. The result, especially in LICs and NEEs:

• Informal settlements (slums, favelas) — over 1 billion people live in slums globally.
• Pressure on services — clean water, sewerage, electricity, schools, hospitals.
• Unemployment / informal economy.
• Pollution and traffic congestion.
• Inequality and crime.

Yet most slum residents say they are better off than they were in their rural origins — the math of urbanisation reflects real human aspiration.

Examiner tips

When asked to describe the global distribution of megacities, use compass directions and continents (not country lists). Always include statistics: ratios, percentages, dates. For 6-mark questions, link physical (coasts, rivers) and human (politics, economy) factors.