Global development: measures, the DTM and reducing the gap

Development is the social and economic progress that improves people's quality of life. AQA expects you to be able to define it, measure it, explain why countries develop unequally, and evaluate strategies to close the gap.

Measuring development

No single measure captures everything. The main candidates:

• GNI per capita (Gross National Income) — total income earned by a country's citizens, divided by population. Easy to compare; ignores inequality.
• Birth rate / death rate / infant mortality / life expectancy — show health and demographic progress.
• Literacy rate — % of adults who can read and write.
• People per doctor — proxy for healthcare access.
• HDI (Human Development Index) — UN composite of life expectancy, education and GNI per capita. Score 0–1. Norway 0.961 (top), Niger 0.400 (bottom). HDI is the gold standard — examiners reward it.

Country categories: HICs (e.g. UK, US, Japan), NEEs (Newly Emerging Economies — China, India, Brazil) and LICs (e.g. Niger, Malawi).

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

A 5-stage model showing how birth and death rates change as a country develops:

• Stage 1 — High BR + high DR → low population growth. Tribal societies (none today on a national scale).
• Stage 2 — DR falls (sanitation, vaccination) but BR remains high → rapid growth. e.g. Niger.
• Stage 3 — BR falls (contraception, female education, urbanisation) → growth slows. e.g. India today.
• Stage 4 — Both low → stable. e.g. UK, USA.
• Stage 5 — DR slightly above BR → declining population. e.g. Japan, Italy, Germany.

Limitations: based on European data, doesn't capture migration, doesn't predict pace of change.

Causes of uneven development

Three families of causes:

1. Physical — climate (drought-prone Sahel), tropical diseases (malaria, sleeping sickness), landlocked location (no port — Niger, Chad), hazard-prone (Bangladesh's floodplain).
2. Economic — colonial trade legacies (extracting raw materials but no manufacturing), debt (HIPCs paying $50 bn+/yr in service), low commodity prices.
3. Historical — colonialism (e.g. Belgium leaving DRC with 16 university graduates in 1960), slave trade, conflict (DRC civil war 1998–2003 killed ~5 m).

Consequences of uneven development

• Disparities in wealth and health — life expectancy in Sierra Leone ~55 vs UK ~81.
• International migration — economic migrants from Eastern Europe to UK; refugees from Syria and Afghanistan. UK net migration 745 000 in 2022.

Strategies to reduce the development gap

• Investment — TNC factories (Tata in India), inward FDI.
• Industrial development — diversifying out of agriculture.
• Tourism — Kenya 2 m visitors, ~10 % of GDP, employs 1.1 m.
• Aid — bilateral (UK to specific countries), multilateral (via UN/World Bank), short-term emergency, long-term development. UK 2023 aid: 0.5 % of GNI.
• Intermediate technology — affordable, locally repairable. Practical Action treadle pumps in Bangladesh; rocket stoves cutting fuelwood by 50 %.
• Fairtrade — guaranteed minimum price + Fairtrade premium for community projects (Kuapa Kokoo cocoa farmers, Ghana — premium funded boreholes for 100 villages).
• Debt relief — HIPC initiative cancelled $76 bn for 36 countries.
• Microfinance loans — Grameen Bank (Bangladesh) 9 m borrowers, 97 % women, 99 % repayment rate.

Case study link

Each strategy works best in some contexts. Aid can save lives in emergencies but creates dependency long-term; tourism brings revenue but is volatile (COVID-19, terrorism); microfinance empowers women but charges high interest. The most effective approaches combine several strategies — Bangladesh's progress on infant mortality combined microfinance, female education, NGO health programmes and rising garment exports.

Examiner tips

• Always use HDI to support points — it's the safest indicator.
• Pair causes (physical + economic + historical) and consequences (wealth + migration).
• Evaluate strategies with named examples and figures (Grameen 9 m borrowers; Fairtrade premium $200/tonne for cocoa).