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GCSE/Geography/Edexcel

T3.1Global urbanisation patterns: rates and trends in HICs vs LIDCs/EDCs; megacities and the rise of the global South

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Global Urbanisation

📖Definition— Definition and scale

Urbanisation is an increase in the proportion of a country's population living in towns and cities. In 2007, the world crossed the 50% urban threshold; by 2050 over two-thirds of humanity will live in urban areas (UN-DESA). Urbanisation is uneven: HICs are already 75–85% urban, while LIDCs are urbanising fastest.

HIC trends — slow growth and counter-urbanisation

In HICs (UK, USA, Japan, Germany), urbanisation peaked in the late 20th century. Rates are now slow or even reversing:

  • Counter-urbanisation: people move from cities to rural/suburban areas (e.g. UK Cotswolds, French rural retirement villages) seeking quality of life, cheaper housing and remote work since 2020.
  • Re-urbanisation: young professionals move back into regenerated city centres (London Docklands, Manchester Northern Quarter).
  • Cities expand horizontally as suburbs (urban sprawl) rather than upward.

LIDC/EDC trends — rapid urbanisation

Africa and Asia are urbanising at unprecedented speed:

  • Lagos, Nigeria grows by ~80 people every hour and is projected to be the world's largest city by 2100.
  • Push factors: rural poverty, drought (Sahel), conflict, mechanisation of agriculture, lack of services.
  • Pull factors: perceived urban jobs, education, healthcare, electricity, social ties.
  • Growth often outpaces planning → informal settlements (slums) lacking sanitation, secure tenure or formal employment. ~1 billion people live in slums today.

Megacities and the rise of the Global South

A megacity has 10+ million people. In 1950 there were 2 (New York, Tokyo). Today there are 33. By 2030, 7 of the top 10 will be in Asia/Africa (Tokyo, Delhi, Shanghai, São Paulo, Dhaka, Mumbai, Cairo). The growth centre of the global urban system has decisively shifted from the North Atlantic to Asia and Africa.

This pattern reflects shifting economic power, demographic trends (younger populations in LIDCs/EDCs) and continued rural-urban migration.

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Practice questions

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  1. Question 14 marks

    Define and contrast urbanisation rates (4 marks)

    Explain why rates of urbanisation are higher in LIDCs/EDCs than in HICs today. [4 marks]

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  2. Question 28 marks

    Examine the rise of megacities in the Global South (8 marks)

    Examine the reasons for the rapid growth of megacities in LIDCs and EDCs. [8 marks]

    Level mark scheme:

    LevelMarksDescriptor
    L11–3Simple statements about migration; no named megacity; weak/no data.
    L24–6Explanation of push and pull factors; some named cities and data; partial analysis of urbanisation drivers.
    L37–8Detailed examination of multiple drivers (push, pull, natural increase, FDI); named megacities with data; recognition of role of younger populations and economic shift; evaluative conclusion.

    Indicative content:

    • Rural push: drought (Sahel → Lagos migration), mechanisation, land conflict, poverty.
    • Urban pull: Mumbai's tertiary/quaternary jobs, Lagos's Nollywood and oil sector, Dhaka's garment industry (RMG = ~80% Bangladesh exports).
    • Natural increase: young migrant populations have high fertility, fuelling further growth from within the city itself.
    • FDI and TNCs: Shanghai, Mumbai, São Paulo attract investment, creating jobs.
    • Government policy: Special Economic Zones in China (Shenzhen — village → 17 m people in 40 years).
    • Conclusion: rural–urban migration is a major driver but natural increase and economic concentration matter too. The result is rapid city growth that often outpaces infrastructure, producing both opportunity (the rising urban middle class) and informal settlements.
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  3. Question 312 marks

    Evaluate the impacts of rapid urbanisation (12 marks)

    Evaluate the social, economic and environmental impacts of rapid urbanisation in a named LIDC or EDC city. [12 marks]

    Level mark scheme:

    LevelMarksDescriptor
    L11–4Generic description of slum life; no named city; no balance.
    L25–8Some impacts of urbanisation discussed across categories; named city used; partial evaluation.
    L39–12Detailed evaluation across social, economic and environmental dimensions; named city evidenced with data; balanced positive AND negative impacts; justified conclusion.

    Named example: Lagos, Nigeria (or Mumbai, Dhaka).

    Indicative content (negatives):

    • Social: 60–70% live in informal settlements like Makoko (built on stilts over a lagoon, no sanitation, cholera outbreaks).
    • Economic: ~60% in informal sector — insecure work, no benefits.
    • Environmental: traffic congestion (Lagos Lagos commute averages 4+ hours/day), air pollution exceeds WHO limits 5×, untreated sewage in lagoon.
    • Crime, vulnerability of informal areas to fire and flooding.

    Indicative content (positives):

    • Lagos contributes ~30% of Nigeria's GDP — engine of national growth.
    • Job creation in Nollywood (2nd largest film industry by output), banking, oil services, tech ("Yabacon Valley").
    • Better access to education, healthcare and services than rural villages.
    • Eko Atlantic — planned new city extending into the Atlantic.

    Conclusion: Rapid urbanisation produces both poverty and prosperity simultaneously. Whether it is "good" depends on city governance — Lagos's challenges reflect under-investment in infrastructure rather than urbanisation per se. Cities like Singapore show that managed urbanisation can deliver strong outcomes; unmanaged growth produces the slums and congestion of Lagos and Dhaka.

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Flashcards

T3.1 — Global urbanisation patterns: HIC vs LIDC/EDC trends and megacities

7-card SR deck for Edexcel Geography (leaves batch 1) topic T3.1

7 cards · spaced repetition (SM-2)

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