Urban futures: megacities, NEE urbanisation and UK city challenges

OCR J383 Paper 2 tests urban geography with case-study questions on a megacity in an LIC/NEE AND a UK city. You need both sets of case-study facts and the ability to compare urban opportunities and challenges across development contexts.

Urbanisation and megacities

Urbanisation = the increasing proportion of a country's population living in urban areas.

• Global urbanisation rate: 56% of world population in cities (2023); projected 68% by 2050.
• Rate is fastest in LICs and NEEs — especially sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia.
• Megacity: a city with a population exceeding 10 million people.
• 2024: 34 megacities globally; most are in LICs/NEEs (Mumbai, Dhaka, Kinshasa, Lagos, Jakarta).

Causes of rapid urbanisation in NEEs:

• Rural-urban migration: people move to cities for employment, services, education.
• Push factors: rural poverty, mechanisation of agriculture (job loss), drought/crop failure.
• Pull factors: higher wages, hospitals, schools, entertainment, perceived opportunity.
• Natural population growth: birth rates remain high in cities; urban populations grow from within.

Case Study: Mumbai, India (megacity in an NEE)

Overview

• Population: ~20.7 million (Mumbai Metropolitan Region ~21–22 million).
• India's financial capital; generates ~6% of India's GDP.
• Located on a peninsula on India's west coast.

Opportunities

Sector	Detail
Finance and business	Bollywood film industry; Mumbai Stock Exchange; global banks and corporations
Employment	Formal sector (banking, IT, manufacturing) + large informal sector
Education	IIT Bombay (world-class university); medical schools; English-language instruction
Infrastructure	Growing metro rail network; largest port in India

Challenges

Dharavi slum (largest slum in Asia by density):

• Population: 600,000–1 million people in ~2.1 km2.
• No reliable piped water (1 toilet per 1,440 people in some areas).
• Informal economy generates ~$1 billion/year (leather goods, pottery, recycling).
• Threat: developers want to redevelop Dharavi (Adani Group proposal, 2022) — residents fear displacement without adequate compensation.

Urban challenges:

• Traffic congestion: 22 million daily vehicle movements; average speed ~15 km/h.
• Air pollution: PM2.5 levels regularly 5–10× WHO guidelines.
• Water supply: only 85% of the population has access to piped water; water supply runs for just 2–5 hours/day in many areas.
• Flooding: monsoon (June–September) regularly causes widespread flooding — 2005 Mumbai floods (944 mm in 24 hours) killed 1,000+.
• Informal settlements: 60% of Mumbai's population lives in informal settlements (slums), despite producing 50% of its economic output.

Management responses:

• Dharavi Redevelopment Project: provide free 300 sq ft apartments to eligible residents (those registered before 2000).
• Mumbai Metro expansion (9 lines planned): aim to reduce car use.
• Coastal Road Project: reclaiming 90 ha from the sea to create a coastal highway.

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Case Study: London, UK (global city in an HIC)

Overview

• Population: 9 million (Greater London); projected 11 million by 2050.
• Primate city: dominant in finance, culture, media, government.

Opportunities

• Global finance hub: City of London; Canary Wharf — financial services generate 2.3 million jobs nationally.
• Cultural diversity: 300+ languages spoken; international talent attraction.
• Transport: 11 Underground lines; Elizabeth line (Crossrail, opened 2022); 5 international airports.
• Universities: UCL, Imperial, LSE, King's — attract global research talent.

Challenges

Urban inequality:

• London is the UK's most unequal city: top 10% earn 9× the bottom 10%.
• Tower Hamlets (East London): 39% child poverty — one of the highest in the UK.
• Gentrification: rising house prices displace long-established communities.

Housing shortage:

• London needs 66,000 new homes/year; builds ~35,000.
• Average house price: £500,000+ (2024); first-time buyer deposit: ~£100,000.
• "Generation Rent": 40% of Londoners now rent privately.

Traffic and air quality:

• 9,400 premature deaths linked to air pollution in London annually (2015 estimate).
• Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expanded to all London boroughs in 2023; reduced NOx emissions by ~30%.

Regeneration: East London / Olympic legacy

• 2012 Olympic Games transformed Stratford and Hackney Wick.
• Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park: 560 ha of parkland; new housing; Westfield Stratford City (largest urban shopping centre in Europe).
• Before: derelict industrial land; contaminated; high unemployment (25%+ in Newham).
• After: 10,000+ new homes; East Bank cultural quarter (V&A, Sadler's Wells, BBC Music); Westfield employs 10,000+.
• Criticism: gentrification → rising rents displaced long-established working-class communities.

Sustainable urban living

• Low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs): restrict through-traffic in residential areas.
• Green roofs and urban trees: cool cities; absorb CO2; manage stormwater.
• Renewable energy: London targets net zero by 2030.
• Waste reduction: circular economy initiatives; food waste collection.
• 15-minute city concept: all amenities (work, shops, parks, healthcare) accessible within 15 minutes on foot or by bike.

Common OCR exam mistakes

1. Confusing "urbanisation" (process of growing urban proportion) with "urban growth" (absolute increase in urban population).
2. Saying all Mumbai slum residents are unemployed — Dharavi generates ~$1 billion/year of economic output from informal industries.
3. Forgetting that London also faces challenges — OCR tests both HIC and LIC/NEE contexts; London has significant inequality, housing shortage and air quality problems.
4. Not reaching a conclusion in evaluate questions — always make a justified judgement about which challenges are most serious.