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GCSE/Mathematics/Edexcel

P4Probabilities of an exhaustive set of outcomes sum to 1

Notes

Sum of probabilities = 1

A foundational result Edexcel tests on every Foundation paper. Used to:

  • Find a missing probability when others are given.
  • Compute a complement (P(not A) = 1 − PA).
  • Check that a probability table is valid.

The result

For an experiment with mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes A₁, A₂, ..., Aₙ:

P(A₁) + P(A₂) + ... + P(Aₙ) = 1.

Finding a missing probability

Worked example: a biased dice has P(1) = 0.1, P(2) = 0.15, P(3) = 0.2, P(4) = 0.15, P(5) = 0.2. Find P(6). Sum so far: 0.1 + 0.15 + 0.2 + 0.15 + 0.2 = 0.8. P(6) = 1 − 0.8 = 0.2.

Complementary events

P(not A) = 1 − PA.

Example: P(it rains) = 0.35. P(it does not rain) = 1 − 0.35 = 0.65.

With fractions

P(red) = 1/4, P(blue) = 1/3. P(any other colour) = 1 − 1/4 − 1/3. Common denominator 12: 1 − 3/12 − 4/12 = 5/12.

Edexcel exam tip

For "the probabilities are p, q, r, s, find s" questions, always show the equation explicitly: p + q + r + s = 1. The M1 mark requires this. Then rearrange.

Validating probability tables

If the values given don't sum to 1, the table is invalid. Edexcel asks: "Karim claims a probability table — explain why this is wrong" — sum the values; show ≠ 1.

Common Edexcel question pattern

A bag contains red, blue, green, and yellow balls. P(R) = 0.4, PB = 2 × P(G), P(Y) = 0.15. Find PB and P(G).

Solution: Let P(G) = g. Then PB = 2g. 0.4 + 2g + g + 0.15 = 1. 3g = 0.45 ⇒ g = 0.15. So P(G) = 0.15 and PB = 0.30.

Common mistakesCommon errors

  1. Adding probabilities outside the same experiment (e.g. P from one event + P from another).
  2. Sum > 1 — flag immediately as invalid.
  3. Negative probability — impossible.
  4. Forgetting that "any colour other than red" = 1 − P(red), not the sum of remaining listed.

AI-generated · claude-opus-4-7 · v3-edexcel-maths-leaves

Practice questions

Try each before peeking at the worked solution.

  1. Question 14 marks

    Find a missing probability

    Edexcel Paper 1F (non-calculator)

    A spinner has four colours. The probabilities are:

    ColourRedBlueGreenYellow
    Probability0.30.250.2x

    (a) Find x. (2 marks)
    (b) Find P(blue or yellow). (2 marks)

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    AI-generated · claude-opus-4-7 · v3-edexcel-maths-leaves

  2. Question 25 marks

    Probabilities expressed in terms of each other

    Edexcel Paper 2F (calculator)

    A bag has 4 colours: red, blue, green, white.

    • P(red) = 2 × P(blue)
    • P(green) = 0.2
    • P(white) = 0.15

    (a) Express P(red) and P(blue) in terms of a single unknown b. (1 mark)
    (b) Find P(red) and P(blue). (4 marks)

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    AI-generated · claude-opus-4-7 · v3-edexcel-maths-leaves

  3. Question 35 marks

    Complementary events

    Edexcel Paper 1F

    The probability that a randomly chosen student in a school cycles to school is 0.18.

    (a) What is the probability that the student does not cycle? (1 mark)
    (b) The school has 600 students. Estimate the number who cycle. (2 marks)
    (c) Estimate the number who do not cycle. (2 marks)

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    AI-generated · claude-opus-4-7 · v3-edexcel-maths-leaves

Flashcards

P4 — Probabilities of an exhaustive set of outcomes sum to 1

7-card SR deck for Edexcel GCSE Mathematics (1MA1) — Leaves topic P4

7 cards · spaced repetition (SM-2)